We have a season to embrace, a glorious sport to wax poetic over, and the pageantry of Opening Day to celebrate, but first I have a show to plug....
Our show runs from noon until 3:00 today from Gameworks in Newport. The list of prizes we have is quite impressive, with giveaways from Riverbend, Hometown Sports and Collectibles, Keeneland, and more.
We have a Kegs and Eggs breakfast that starts at 9am and beer specials that run all day.
We have a speed-pitch, which almost guarantees that you'll see dudes destroying their rotator cuffs trying to impress people.
And we have Dallas Latos.
We also have other guests. Joel Luckhaupt who knows more about stats than I will ever care to, will be with me at 12:30, Doc Rodgers gives us a former front office exec's point of view at 1:04, and Chris Sexton, who's wife runs one hell of a fish fry, gives us a former player's perspective at 2:04.
Did I mention we have Dallas Latos?
She starts off the show at noon. The doors open at 9am. There's no cover and there's nowhere better to park than Newport on the Levee.
We'll get to the season and my attempts to wax poetic about baseball in a minute, but one quick thing on the Joey Votto deal....
Bob Castellini is a rich person. He did not get to be rich by cashing in winning Mega Millions tickets and he didn't stumble into his wealth like some genetic lottery winner either. He has accumulated a massive amount of money by being smart, by investing well, and by making sound, thought-out, business decisions.
I bring this up because as we sort through the pros and cons of Votto's new contract, one major questions keeps popping up....
How are the Reds going to pay for this?
It's a fair and legit question, and it's not one that either you or I know the answer to. I don't think Bob Castellini necessarily knows the answer to it, but I don't think that smart, successful businessmen like him throw around money like PacMan Jones at a strip club. They do their homework, they assess the risks, and they make decisions based on their likelihood of getting a solid return on their investment.
I'm guessing that the Castellinis have taken a strong look at how the business of baseball and the Reds will evolve over the next decade. I'm guessing they've looked into new potential revenue streams, and new partnerships. I'm guessing there's a plan to pay for this, one that might not be foolproof and one that could blow up in Castellini's face, but I can't imagine that a wealthy guy who's spent a lifetime making sound business decisions hasn't put a lot of thought into his latest big move.
While questions linger about the long-term ramifications of the Joey deal, we do have a season that begins today, in case you hadn't noticed.
At some point today you'll read some poetic, eloquent reflection on Opening Day in Cincinnati and what the newness of a baseball season means. Whatever is said in that piece, pretend you read it here because I feel the exact same way.
More than anything though, beyond the pomp and circumstance of today and even beyond the high expectations for the season, I'm just excited to sit in the ballpark today with a cold one and watch a baseball game.
There's nothing better.
Let's get to some predictions for 2012....
*Jay Bruce will lead the National League in home runs. Stat nerds will point out that his 32 home runs last season, a career high, were largely achieved because he also had a career high of 589 at-bats. Jay's homer rate in 2011, one for 18.3 ABs, fell in line with his homer rate for his career, which is 18.5
That's fair, but in both 2010 and 2011, Jay went through prolonged slumps. He went a month and a half without going deep in 2010 and he went yard just once during a six week span last year and had another month long drought later in the season.
I say Jay finds his long ball stroke a little more consistently this season and with Pujols and Fielder now in the other league, and with Ryan Howard hobbling, their aren't as many sluggers in the way.
*Tony LaRussa's transgressions will be forgiven. Dusty Baker could win 129 games this season and successfully negotiate a peace treaty between Major League Baseball and Pete Rose and most fans still won't give the guy a fair shake. This is a win-or-else season for Dusty and it's a season where his decisions will be debated and scrutinized more than ever. His first spring training lineup nearly broke Twitter.
Which brings us to Tony.
He's not managing right now. (How weird was it watching the Cardinals last night without him in the dugout?) He has ties to the Reds GM and owner. And like most of his time in Oakland and St. Louis, the Reds have a transcendent superstar to build around. Would he come here? No idea? Should this be something we're even discussing? Not really. But we will. Tony replacing Dusty will be brought up every time this team loses back to back games. It might be brought up if they lose today.
*Banana Phone callers will constantly refer to "Ryan Madison." Not as much as if Ryan Madson had been healthy this season, but you'll hear it during Reds Rain Delays nonetheless.
*Zack Cozart will be the new fan favorite. When he's bad, he won't be as frustratingly bad as guys like Drew Stubbs. When he's good, he'll give this team a dimension they've long been lacking. Plus, the people (like me) constantly looking for a new favorite player will want to stand out from the hordes of Votto/Bruce/Phillips frontrunners by picking a good, young player with staying power.
*Dallas Latos' husband will be very, very good. His ERA will go up because he's not pitching at PETCO Park, but his road numbers last year (3.68 ERA and only eight homers allowed) suggest that the impact of moving from such a pitcher-friendly park will be minimal. The Reds presumably score runs for him, he'll accumulate 200 Ks, and he'll adjust to tossing at GABP. I say he leads the staff in wins.
*We will finally put an end to an annoying meme that stopped being funny a while ago. Look, I don't like Chris Carpenter. I hope he leads the league in losses and cries after every defeat, but "How will Chris Carpenter explain this to his son" is more tired than wondering when UK's national title will be vacated.
*The Reds will go 86-76. They're better, but I don't know that they're 90-win better. The back of the rotation doesn't yet do it for me. Neither of the left fielders do it for me. The third base situation is shaky. Two rookies have featured roles. And the added wild card team in each league could make adding a component at the deadline trickier than ever.
The good news is that NL is forgiving. The Phillies, Cardinals, Brewers, and Giants all face massive questions. The Nationals still look like a team that's a year away. The Braves have to overcome the hangover of last year's collapse. The Marlins are viable but their rotation will be inconsistent. The Dodgers have too many bad players. And the Cubs have too many weird people rooting for them.
86 wins gets the Reds in the playoffs in a down year for the National League. The one-game playoff will be against the Fish in Miami, bringing the season full-circle as the Reds square off against the same team they play today.
Plenty more predictions on ESPN1530 today starting at 12:04. See you at Gameworks. 
