A FEW MO' THINGS, 8/21/12

Hey remember me?!

I took yesterday off.  Since we're now supposed to be sharing photos of what we do in our free time, here you go....

Pretty exciting.

-We have another ESPN1530 Reds Watch Party tomorrow night at Dave and Buster's.  You will not want to miss this one.  I have little reason to make such a hyperbole-filled statement, but I still want you to show up, buy a cheesesteak, drink a beer, and win one of our incredible prizes.  Be there.

-Don't forget we have a chat tomorrow.  It will be at 9am.  And it will change your life.  Here's the link.

-The Reds have a problem.  It's one of those problems you want to have, like having an obscene amount of money and time and not being admitted to a snooty golf course, but it's a problem nonetheless.

Neither Mike Leake and Homer Bailey are very good right now.

But Mo, Leake was money last week, holding the Mets to a run while chucking a complete game.

Right, but he has an ERA of 5.83 in the second half, hitters are hitting over .300 against him, and after giving up a homer just under once every nine innings before the All-Star break, hitters are punting it out of the park once every 5.8 innings.

Bailey, after a fantastic July hasn't gotten through the sixth inning in any of his last four starts, and batters are hitting about 50 points higher in the second half.  He's blown past his career high for innings pitched in a season, and his pitching coach is already fighting off questions about Homer being fatigued.

Not good.

Not "holy crap this is gonna be why the Reds blow a large lead in the final six week" not good, but still....not good.

Each guy is scheduled to make seven to eight more regular season starts, with the dynamic of the NL Central race and availability of other arms in September playing a role in determining how they're used.  And maybe the Reds have a good enough lead, a solid enough 1-2 atop the rotation, and a deep enough bullpen to overcome this between now and October, but what about you know, October?

The 2009 Yankees famously used a three-man rotation throughout the postseason on their way to a World Series title.  Each starter threw on short rest at least once in October. 

But these ain't the 2009 Yankees. And none of the Reds starters have the pedigrees of the guys who logged the starters innings for New York three years ago.

At some point this postseason, the services of a fourth starter will be demanded.  Cueto has never thrown on three-days rest.  Neither has Mat Latos.  Both are locks to be in a postseason rotation that the Reds are near locks to start figuring out soon.  Bronson Arroyo would likely be part of any rotation, but at some point, as long as the Reds play more than three games in October, they'll need a fourth guy.

The questions will be two-fold.  1)  Who gets the ball?  2)  How much do you trust whomever you give the ball to?

On the surface, the obvious choice would be Bailey.  He's had a better season, and Leake's ability to hit make him an ideal long-man for the playoffs.  But as Bailey approaches uncharters waters (he's already thrown 15 more innings this season than any other year) and if questions about fatigue persist, think about how you'd feel with him on the mound in a must-win game in October.

Then Leake about how you'd feel with Leake making a start with the season depending on it.

I think you get the point.

I might be getting a little ahead of myself...the division hasn't been clinched yet.  And maybe the other starters will be so good that they and a dominant bullpen combine with a red-hot offense to offset poor starts by their fourth pitchers.  And yeah, there's always a chance that Bailey and Leake turn their second halves around.

But as much fun as it is to spend time in August talking about who will start in October, thinking about the prospects of the Reds' postseason hopes riding on either Homer Bailey or Mike Leake isn't.

-When Jay Bruce is on, as he is right now....three more hits last night and the average at .457 during this nine-game hitting streak...when he's on he can carry a team.

The problem is, with six weeks left in the season, you wonder how steep the dropoff will be when he inevitably cools.

-Speaking of getting ahead of ourselves...can you even imagine what October 21st could be like if our city is hosting Game Six of the NLCS on the same day the Bengals host the Steelers on Sunday Night Football?

Can you even imagine what it'd be like to own a Third Street garage?

-It'd be better than this past weekend, simply because of the magnitude of the two games, but it'd still have some pretty high standards to reach.  The pre and post-game atmosphere around the ballyard this weekend was really unlike we've seen here in a very, very, long time.  The bars were full, Crosley Terrace outside GABP had an incredible energy about it.  People were actually in a good, celebretory mood. 

It helps that the team has a nice, comfortable cushion and it helped that they were playing the Cubs (1908!), but this is a really fun, exciting time to be a sports and living in Cincinnati.  And with a chance to stick a fork in the Cardinals while celebrating Barry Larkin's career this weekend, the vibe on the riverfront should be incredible.

-I'm confused.

-Augusta National admitted two female members.  Good for the two female members.  I think some are being a little overdramtic however, when discussing the societal impact of this move.  It's a great day if you're an affluent woman who wants to play golf when affluent men.  For the rest of us, mainly women, it means little.

-Buy one of these....

-I'm not sure what this TV station is trying to say about it severe weather coverage.

-I'm a few days late on this, mainly because they don't pay me to blog when I'm off, but if you're gonna do the wave (and by the way, VERY poor form by fans at GABP doing the wave during a one-run game in the eighth inning on Sunda), this is how you do it....

-I may say a lot of stupid things, but I've never said anything as stupid as this.

-Here's today's definition of irony.

-I'm probably the only person who thinks that Roger Clemens coming back at age 50 is kinda cool.

-I'm probably not the only person who thinks that Maria Sharapova is kinda attractive.