A FEW MO' THINGS, 8/14/12
Combining blog posts today. We'll start with this...
Holy Crap, I actually have time to update my blog. I'd have more time to update my blog if I simply assigned the task to underlings as certain other hosts have been known to do, but I believe in doing my own work, so this site gets updated on my schedule.
Speaking of my schedule, it's pretty clear for the next two weeks. No radio shows the rest of this week. None at all next week. I will be blogging. I will do a chat tomorrow. And maybe one other day, if the demand is there, as well.
-Remember when the Reds won ten in a row? Or that time when they won 22 of 25? Good times, right? As good as the going was during that glorious time, I had some concerns about the Reds. Among them were the following....
The lack of production at the top of the lineup, given how infrequently Cozart and Stubbs get on base, and how both have a propensity to, at times, be out-making machines.
The inability of Jay Bruce to avoid prolong slumps. Jay can go through stretches where he carries the offense, where the home runs come in bunches and where he looks the part of an elite run-making machine. Unfortunately, those stretches are offset by maddening stretches where he looks more clueless than I do when I look at the ESPN1530 afternoon programming schedule. If Jay goes through a prolonged slump at just the wrong time, this offense can, as it often does, come to a halt.
Too many players like Rolen, Cairo, and Valdez. All of whom are past their prime. I'm not even sure Wilson Valdez had a prime. Terrell Owens' child support payments are more reliable than Scott Rolen's back. And Miguel Cairo is just not very good. I don't even have a bad joke. He just isn't a very good baseball player.
The bench isn't very good. Cairo and Valdez are offensive zeroes. Heisey is a nice guy to have on the bench, but his power numbers are down and he whiffs a lot. Xavier Paul looks good at the plate, but you can't help but wonder when he'll turn into a pumpkin. It's a group that could've used an upgrade but didn't get one.
A reliance on rookies. Cozart is going to be a nice player for a while, but he's a rookie. Frazier might (should at this point) be the Rookie of The Year in the NL. He too, is a rookie. Mesoraco seems to be learning on the job. But they're all rookies. Rookies hit walls. They go through growing pains. They make adjustments at the Major League level they never had to make elsewhere. You can maybe rely on one and get away with it, but this team is often playing all three at a time. It could be a problem.
The curse of good health. The Reds have had great fortune. They've only used five starters this season. That's a clear indicator of their health and durability. It's also a testament to the fact that none have demanded any kind of demotion, either to the bullpen or the minors. (It also might say something about the lack of other options in the organization) The problem is, one of the has surged past his career high in innings (Bailey), and the others should surpass their career highs by different degrees. Of their five starters, only Arroyo has ever surpassed 200 innings in a season. What happens as these guys get deeper into the season and as their inning totals rise? Is there a plan to offset either that, or the inevitable dropoff after months of this staff being so good? Is there a viable plan B if a starter gets hurt? And can the Reds afford to add another starter (Todd Redmond) to the mix in the middle of a pennant race simply for the sake of taking both pressure and innings off their other five? Who will have what left in the tank come October? And can the bullpen handle the workload left by an exhausted rotation?
Now remember when the Reds lost five straight last week and the entire fan base started their dress rehearsal for the upcoming Apocalypse? That wasn't much fun, was it? During that inglorious time, I had some concerns about the Reds. Among them were the following....
The lack of production at the top of the lineup, given how infrequently Cozart and Stubbs get on base, and how both have a propensity to, at times, be out-making machines.
The inability of Jay Bruce to avoid prolong slumps. Jay can go through stretches where he carries the offense, where the home runs come in bunches and where he looks the part of an elite run-making machine. Unfortunately, those stretches are offset by maddening stretches where he looks more clueless than I do when I look at the ESPN1530 afternoon programming schedule. If Jay goes through a prolonged slump at just the wrong time, this offense can, as it often does, come to a halt.
Too many players like Rolen, Cairo, and Valdez. All of whom are past their prime. I'm not even sure Wilson Valdez had a prime. Terrell Owens' child support payments are more reliable than Scott Rolen's back. And Miguel Cairo is just not very good. I don't even have a bad joke. He just isn't a very good baseball player.
The bench isn't very good. Cairo and Valdez are offensive zeroes. Heisey is a nice guy to have on the bench, but his power numbers are down and he whiffs a lot. Xavier Paul looks good at the plate, but you can't help but wonder when he'll turn into a pumpkin. It's a group that could've used an upgrade but didn't get one.
A reliance on rookies. Cozart is going to be a nice player for a while, but he's a rookie. Frazier might (should at this point) be the Rookie of The Year in the NL. He too, is a rookie. Mesoraco seems to be learning on the job. But they're all rookies. Rookies hit walls. They go through growing pains. They make adjustments at the Major League level they never had to make elsewhere. You can maybe rely on one and get away with it, but this team is often playing all three at a time. It could be a problem.
The curse of good health. The Reds have had great fortune. They've only used five starters this season. That's a clear indicator of their health and durability. It's also a testament to the fact that none have demanded any kind of demotion, either to the bullpen or the minors. (It also might say something about the lack of other options in the organization) The problem is, one of the has surged past his career high in innings (Bailey), and the others should surpass their career highs by different degrees. Of their five starters, only Arroyo has ever surpassed 200 innings in a season. What happens as these guys get deeper into the season and as their inning totals rise? Is there a plan to offset either that, or the inevitable dropoff after months of this staff being so good? Is there a viable plan B if a starter gets hurt? And can the Reds afford to add another starter (Todd Redmond) to the mix in the middle of a pennant race simply for the sake of taking both pressure and innings off their other five? Who will have what left in the tank come October? And can the bullpen handle the workload left by an exhausted rotation?
Yes, you just read the same thing twice. That's my point. When the Reds were seemingly invincible, I knew that indeed they weren't. When they seemed like they'd never, ever, win again, I knew that the losing skid wasn't simply revealing some deep flaws and major issues with the team, I knew they existed all along.
This is a good team, and they've spent most of the season playing great baseball. They're fun to watch, easy to root for, and they go into the middle week of August with a five game lead in the division. They've overcome injuries to their best player and they've managed to not allow one or two nut-punch losses to torpedo the season. I don't know what the final margin will be, I suspect the lead will shrink again and I imagine the Cardinals will at some point make a run (I keep saying this and it doesn't happen, so I'm going to keep saying this), but I don't think it's going out on a limb to claim that I think the Reds will win the division. The schedule is forgiving, the bullpen is still a huge strength (The Aroldis Chapman-for-Cy Yong bandwagon is filling up), Votto will return, they do have an ace, Latos has been very good recently, Phillips has risen to the challenge recently, they're getting production for Ludwick, their rookies are unfazed by the race, and this team still seems to have an "it" factor about them
But they're flawed. They still have obstacles and roadblocks that could keep this team from playing in October and they're all amplified when we talk about how much success they'll have once they get to October. Maybe the biggest challenges the Reds face the rest of the way are more about their competitors in either the division, in the NL playoff field, or their American League opponent in the World Series, and maybe their biggest challenges lie within. Either way, it's fair to talk about the things that could keep this team from getting to where were ultimately want them to go. And mentioning them and getting into a debate over them doesn't mean that you don't appreciate what this team has done so far and it doesn't mean you're not going to enjoy the ride the rest of the way.
It's a balance, a balance that some people don't get, and that others misunderstand. Some want to pretend that this team is perfect ad ignore their holes when they wins are nonstop. Others act as if each loss peels away a new layer of deeply inherent issues within the team that's going to completely sink them into oblivion. And often these people are exactly the same. If the Reds win a few, they are the greatest collection of baseball players ever, making up an unstoppable force of talent and will that will dominate baseball deep into the millennium. Lose a couple, and they're the 1962 Mets.
They're neither.
Enjoy the journey. Nothing in sports is as much fun as a pennant race, especially if it culminates with a deep playoff run. And talk about your team from every angle, both its positives and negative, its best attributes and its ugliest warts. Be entertained while sharing your worries. And hope that by the end of October you're able to laugh at the fretting you did about an eventual champion.
But set aside the absolutes. This is a good team with some holes. Don't ignore then when the going is good. Don't make it seem like they're causing the sky to cave in when it's not. The Reds are neither perfect or awful. Hopefully they're able to achieve something closer to perfection despite their baggage instead of resembling something closer to awful because of it.
Ugh. If you watched any fake football this weekend, you saw horribly under-qualified officials making unforgivable mistakes, including the crew in Friday's Pretend Bengals/Sorta Jets tilts confuse the college rule that prohibits a player from lining up over the center on a punt with the NFL rule that allows it. Replacement refs will undermine the league's integrity and compromise player safety.
But I'm not buying it from the NFL.
They know what the replacements refs did this weekend and they know what the public reaction has been. What they're doing is leveraging that to win a PR battle against the referees in an attempt to force them to cave.
They'll get something done. It might be after more horrific officiating in pretend games, but they'll get something done.
-I'm nearly two weeks late on this, but this story about the guy who coaches eight year-olds and demands that they develop killer instinct makes me glad I don't know him.
-After Friday's Bengals "game," I went to a downtown establishment to have a beer and some wings. Two Bengals assistants were at said establishment enjoying a frosty beverage after work, minding their own business, probably rehashing the game while enjoying a nice cold one.
I will not reveal the identity of these two coaches because I adhere to the code. There's a chance that these two men might be married to total nags who would complain about them breaking off for beers and so there's a chance that these two men told their nags that they'd be working late after the game when instead they were going to drink. I'm not selling these guys out.
The reason I bring this is to talk about Know-It-All Superfan. Know-It-All-Superfan saw these two coaches and instead of merely saying hello and offering words of encouragement for the season, Know-It-All Superfan decided to impart his football wisdom to two men who probably spend 90% of their waking minutes thinking about, working on, talking about, and coaching football. He was telling them what formations to run (guessing he plays a lot of Madden), which players to keep, and everything shy of explaining to them how the 3-4 defense works.
That these two guys didn't laugh in this dude's face says something about them. There's at least two very good, very patient men on that coaching staff.
-Biking For Baseball is making its way through Cincinnati this week. Their website and their mission are both worth checking out.
-There's some pretty good stuff here from the guys at StraitPinkie on how the Reds have kept winning without Joey Votto.
-Remember Jason LaRue? Today would be the anniversary of a day he might like to forget. Chances are, given how his career ended, he has.
-If you're headed to the Western and Southern Open this week, stop by the Corona Beach House. You'll find me there most afternoons. On Wednesday, I'm hosting trivia and player appearances. Last night we had Tomas Berdych. the world's seventh ranked player. Here's some action shots of me hitting him with tough questions....
I do my best interviewing in bars, though I don't know why I look so terrified here....
